Oops! I did it again! (apologies to Britney)

The Preakness Stakes is over. My picks:

1) Animal Kingdom

2) Mucho Macho Man

3) Dialed In

4) Shackleford

Hmmmmm. Not so good – huh?

Shackleford and his rider teamed up for a brilliant race. He went to the front as expected. He put up an incredible first quarter time (very smart) then – slowed down for the next two calls (and that was the Brilliant part) to make it a more comfortable pace – and of course, held on for the win. I must admit that I didn’t like his chances, and then when I saw how he was acting up during the post parade I was convinced that I was right in writing him off.

My  pick to win: Animal Kingdom broke out of the gate poorly, and was farther back than he was in the Kentucky Derby and that coupled with a tough final turn and a wall of horses throwing dirt in his face, came up just short of overtaking Shackleford for the win. If it had been a sixteenth longer (or more like the Belmont Stakes coming up in 3 weeks) he would have won easily. Watch him do it at Belmont.

My pick for second place was Mucho Macho Man and admittedly that was a bet from my heart and not my head. He did well to finish 6th.

My pick for third was Dialed In, and he finished a respectful 4th. He’s always a bridesmaid, never a bride!

… now, on to the Belmont Stakes… Maybe I can do better there. And as of right now, IF he runs, my pick will be once again: Animal Kingdom.

Stay tuned…

My Squidoo lenses were “locked” today. That means taken down, unpublished, hidden away, destroyed, obliterated, bombed, and killed. Know why? Because they were about the Horse races; Kentucky Derby, the Preakness, and one about Las Vegas (and how to save money on your next visit).

Those lenses were labeled by the Squidoo Brainiacs as Gambling.

These were simple lenses of information – that’s all – information. But the Squidoo Fools called the lenses: “Gambling”

Gambling!

How often must I say this? How often must I cry in the dark? What does it take to get through to some people? What must my message be to convince the powers-at-be that:

EVERYTHING WE DO IS A GAMBLE. You’ve seen my writings in the past about Stocks, and Bonds, and Insurance, and what we buy at the Grocery store, and which Mate we choose…. on and on and on and on and on and…

Until ALL lenses are removed (show me one that isn’t about Gambling) then the removal of mine is highly, HIGHLY discriminatory!!!! Perhaps, even illegal.

I look forward to the day when this “Gambling phobia” is challenged in court and made illegal!!!!

I read last week that one elementary school has decided that their student can’t have Easter Eggs… they must only have: “Spring Spheres”. oh brother!

So, if that kind of nonsense gets it’s day in court, then mine must too!

I maintain that one can’t decide on any thing over any other thing without that act being a “gamble”.

What say you?…

Oh, and one more thing: Squidoo? Grow up!

Yes, Surprise was the word of the day yesterday as the Titanic of horse racing, the 1-9 favorite Uncle Mo lost to two (not just one, but two – Toby’s Corner and Arthur’s Tale)  rivals in the Wood Memorial.

BTW: As you know, I had picked Uncle Mo to win that race (as did everyone else it seems – after all, he went off at 1-9) so that was a loss. What I didn’t have time to tell most of you was this. When Uncle Mo showed those odds (1-9) I jumped off him! At those odds, no horse is bettable because you risk your money for a very small return… it’s just not smart! So, the play in this case was to bet EVERY OTHER HORSE to win… and hope for an upset. Because, the closest odds to the favorite was an amazing 17-1 (late betting pushed him down to 8-1 – may have been his connections who always bet at the very last moment)… the other horses were well into the high 20′s, the 30′s, and beyond. So, place one unit on each of the other horses to win, and 2 units on the favorite-of-the-rest (8-1).

Playing $10 units, your bet would have been $90, and your return was nearly $200.

At the start of that race, Uncle Mo was also the favorite to win the Kentucky Derby. Less than two minutes later… dog meat! Well, that’s a little harsh, he’s still a good horse in a so-so crop of 3 year olds. That’s horse racing! As we know, anything can and does happen. Unless it’s discovered that Uncle Mo was injured (and Bob Baffert said he tore a quarter at the gate) Uncle Mo had no excuses as the times were very, very slow.

Here, see for yourself:

So, where does that leave us in the hunt for a winner on May 7th at Churchill Downs? It doesn’t appear at this moment that we’re going to have a Triple Crown Winner… again! (1978 was the last)

Ok, Uncle Mo’s an also ran, Dialed In barely beat a 68-1 long shot, Premier Pegasus is out with an injury, Jaycito too… Where’s Beetlebomb when you need him?

All of this makes next week’s race at my favorite race track in all of North America very much in the spotlight.

If The Factor wins the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn next week, he will undoubtedly be the favorite in the Kentucky Derby as well.

The race to enter The Kentucky Derby tightens up considerably today through two very important prep races; the Santa Anita Derby, and the Wood Memorial.

Here’s how I see them:

Santa Anita Derby – Today’s SADerby is going to be hottly contested based upon of all things: the horses! Duh! You say… but consider the facts that great careful breeding, high prices, famous connections, perfect training and deep pocket owners can all do their parts and still not make the grade… in this case: The Grade I, Million Dollar SAD!

Today, in the last chance for Left-Coast horses to qualify for the Kentucky Derby (and subsequently the Triple Crown) we’ll see only nine horses enter the starting gate.

On Thursday, the runaway favorite to win (8-5) Premier Pegasus was scratched due to a hairline fractured cannon bone. The horse will have to wait this out to heal.

Then, yesterday, Bob Baffert announced that his top contender Jaycito would also sit this one out due to a bruised foot… also not career ending, but he’ll need to rest it awhile. He might enter the Grade III, Lexington Stakes to get into the qualifying money for the Kentucky Derby.

So, that leaves nine: nine horses that would have finished up the track are now battling for the win. Current favorite: Silver Medallion (a triple crown name – right?) will have some trouble with two other stake’s winners in Anthony’s Cross and front-running Comma To The Top. Bob Baffert is hopeful that his long-shot; Midnight Interlude (another sexy name) will give him the win he needs for a trip to Kentucky.

With all these hiccups, who can handicap this one?

I will try:

Anthony’s Cross and Silver Medallion have both been absent since Feb 12th… question? SM has never run on the dirt… question?

Midnight Interlude is a big, unproven horse that may not be able to handle the distance nor his own weight… question?

Comma To The Top finished fourth in the San Felipe after a front end dual that sank his rivals to dead last in the race. Despite that, or because of it, I’m picking Comma To The Top to upset in the Santa Anita Derby. He’ll still go to the front, but may be handled a bit to conserve his energy. That’s the promise his trainer Peter Miller delivered Thursday.

===================

Wood Memorial – This one is not so contentious. The clear and overwhelming favorite (1-5); Uncle Mo (also the current favorite to win the Kentucky Derby) will break out of the starting gate against nine opponents in the premier race at New York’s Aqueduct Race Track.

The 2010 Champion 2 Year Old Colt is a galloping sensation. His stride beats anything we’ve seen this year and perhaps preceding years going back to the late 70′s. He’s 4 for 4 and looks to stretch out his perfect record today.

The second choice Toby’s Corner will get blinkers for the first time. The other “contenders” are admittedly trying to get into the exacta and/or the trifecta bowing to the superior horse.

Secretly, the trainers all say; IF… if the horse (Uncle Mo) stumbles or has a bad day…

So, barring that, my pick for the Wood: Uncle Mo… Duh!

Sure, Dialed In, the 5-2 second favorite in the eight horse field ridden by Julien Leparoux and trained by Nick Zito, won the Florida Derby. But I have to ask “So What”? It was his trademarked long-strided stretch run that got him the win… but…

… and that’s a HUGE “but” – over who?

Soldat? the 3-2 favorite… where was he? completely out of the money… that’s where!

Stay Thirsty? missing in action as were all the others including Flashpoint the much heralded speedster who gave up his run for the Swale to enter here… oops!

The race was exciting, there’s no doubt, and the times were hohum pretty good… but this was a Grade I race, and the times should have been spectacular!

Up the backstretch (and everywhere else) Shackleford (who?) was pressed by To Honor and Serve had the solid lead. Third was Flashpoint with Soldat on the inside, and trailing everyone was Dialed In… some 14 lengths back.

Around the final turn Shackleford, ridden by Jesus Castanon, kept a hold on the lead with To Honor and Serve second and Dialed In making his rally from last.

Shackleford still led with a furlong to go as Dialed In began to grind it out and catch the former.

Dialed In caught the leader just yards before the finish and was able to stick his head out as he and Shackleford hit the wire.

To Honor and Serve, the 7-2 third pick, finished third followed by Flashpoint, Soldat, Arch Traveler, Stay Thirsty and Bowman’s Causeway

Notice that no one else but Shackleford, To Honor and Serve, and Flashpoint even got a call until Dialed In joined the mix!

So, the race was all hype and no result!… save one: the amazing presence of Shackleford, the longest shot on the board at 68-1 in the photo at the finish.

Obviously, no one gave this horse (named for Charles Shackleford of NC State fame) a chance to beat the others today. However, his winnings of $212K put him in the top 20 money earners headed for the Kentucky Derby. He’s currently 19th (out of 20) and doubtful to stay in.

Plus, I’m not convinced he deserves to be in the KD. His connections will decide whether to point him there in the next day or two. Time is running out to enter another graded race, and his winnings are probably too low NOT to enter another.

My guess is; he’s a no go!

What about Dialed In? Yeah, he’ll be there, but I can’t be excited about his chances after watching today’s race. Ditto Soldat et all!

The Kentucky Derby race to the post begins today. There’s a big field of horses trying to qualify for the Run for the Roses. It’s a matter of money… that is, the top money earners of this year’s crop of three-year-olds will get into the big race on the first Saturday in May (May 7th).

Update: Results below…

Since 2004, the Kentucky Derby has had 20 horses in the race. If more than 20 (the limit) are entered, the top graded money earners are admitted.  Last year, the bubble horse was “Make Music for Me”, and his earnings were a record high $218,750.

So, it’s no small order to get into the Kentucky Derby any longer, with the current system for qualifying, coupled with the huge crop of horses that appear this time of year as contenders, coupled with the “machines” in place for developing quality horses (that would include breeding practices, trainers and their methods, big money owners, better facilities, improving medical, physical and exercise treatments, racing grounds and surfaces, savvy riders, marketing) there is little likelihood of ever seeing a short field Kentucky Derby again.

Currently, tied for fifth-place in earnings (with “The Factor”) is a much lauded horse “Mucho Macho Man” And he’s running as the favorite in the first Million Dollar race at the Fairgrounds in New Orleans… the Grade II “Louisiana Derby” at a mile and an eighth.

Mucho Macho Man’s connections (majority partner; Dean Reeves) has been pointing MMM toward the KD since late last summer. Trainer; Kathy Ritvo took over the reigns from her trainer husband; Tim Ritvo when he took on the huge responsibility of Racing Vice President of Magna. They too are focused on getting their horse entered in the Kentucky Derby.

UPDATE: Mucho Macho Man finished a strong third in the race and may still be in the running for the Kentucky Derby. But it will be a difficult 6 weeks as the connections try to solve the puzzles: 1) Why didn’t he win. 2) Do we enter him in another race before the Kentucky Derby to assure ample winnings. 3) Do we rest him, and train him into the race – hoping that his current earnings are enough?

Meanwhile, the winner of the Million Dollar “Louisiana Derby” will HAVE to run at Churchill Downs on May 7th due to the enormous purse he won today. “Pants on Fire” was entered by his trainer; Kelly Breen to set the race for PoF’s stable mate; “Nacho Business”, but “Pants on Fire” didn’t know that. He ran a great race on his own under the handling by jockey; Anna Rose “Rosie” Napravnik.

Stay Tuned…

I hope you all hate (hmmmm dislike) Microsoft. If not for their poor (Horrible) products, then for their poor (Horrible) business practices. (Don’t get me started – ’cause it goes all the way back to their early days – read about those pirates yourself).

Now, our beloved Yahoo has decided to get into bed with the Redmond, WA bandits. They’re merging their Search Marketing with (gag) Bing!

We who love Gambling (and that really includes EVERYONE – if you don’t believe me – stop buying Stocks, Bonds, Insurance Policies, and picking your Mate) had to leave Google… and now Yahoo too!

Because of this new alliance which begins August 15, 2010, Yahoo is now pulling all Gambling related Ads. We can’t learn how to play anymore, we can’t research where to play anymore, we can’t enjoy our favorite pastime thanks to Bill and his Boys!

I don’t understand why they believe THEY should be the police, this affects much more than just the USA. Further, here in the USA there are already laws against online Gambling thanks to that poor (Horrible) ex-President Bush who snuck (yes snuck – on a late Friday nite)the uigea INSIDE a Freedom Protection Bill that the lawmakers didn’t even notice was in there.

I’ve written umpteen blog posts on the subject – please go back and get all the details. Let it suffice to say, the law is bogus, the Internet isn’t owned by the USA (thank God), there are stupid stops in place to prevent USA Players from gambling online, the powerful lottery, sports betting and horse racing lobbyists got THEIR gambling interests exempted, the financial institutions have been strapped with the responsibility to police online gambling (who do you think pays for that??? maybe the bank bailouts???), the law will be changed (sooner than later – I hope) because it’s so poorly (Horribly) written now.

The UIGEA isn’t working anyway – USA players get around it everyday. Think of the money the USA is losing. Estimates are the US Gov’t is losing $40 Billion in the next 10 years in Taxes alone. Add to that the fact that the US entrepreneurs had to move their businesses to other countries (and with it, all their jobs). Maybe they’ll move back here when it’s legal and that means more taxes, more jobs, and more money for the US Gov’t. The banks can save the money it’s costing to police CC sales.

What’s Bill and Bing, and Yahoo and Google going to do from atop their high-horses when the anti-gambling bill is revoked? They’re making a moral judgment that they may regret.

And by the way, just WHO was getting “hurt” by a marketer selling a book on how to play Poker, or Roulette, or Craps, or any Casino game? Millions of USA Players want the information and the right to read those books – they were not getting “hurt” – but they are NOW! More lost money; the authors lose, and even Yahoo loses! Why?

There are some SERIOUS addictions out there folks… but either they are legal, or the US Gov’t spends Billions of Tax Dollars on getting USA citizens off their addictions. Still, we see those products marketed everywhere we look. The notion that one will get addicted by reading one of those Gambling books is just Stupid!

I don’t know what can be done about this nonsense until the law is changed. Yahoo is getting tons of complaints now as each marketer sees his stuff removed… add your voice to the mix. Call them and let them know how wrong it is to “protect us” from ourselves. Yahoo: 1 866-924-6676

Wow, it seem it’s necessary to send out a reminder to everyone that what makes online gambling “illegal” in the US has exceptions.

When Bush and his Republican cronies snuck the horrible UIGEA into the “Patriot’s Bill” late one Friday night, it became a law that was to become one of the biggest mistakes (or stupid moves) in many decades. It’s been debated, argued, postponed and fought over ever since!

You know the history… you know the problems it caused… you know it’s impossible to enforce… and yet it still hangs over us.

That will soon change.

But meanwhile, I’m surprised at the number of us that love playing the ponies – yet forget that it is legal in the US.

You should remember that one of the problems with the UIGEA is that it has built-in exceptions that expose the hypocrisy of the law as it’s written.  Those exceptions are: Horse Racing, Lotteries, and Fantasy Sports.

So, get your account with: Daily Racing Form (www.drf.com), TVG (www.tvg.com), You Bet (www.youbet.com), and open betting accounts at the site(s) of your choice…. and enjoy the freedom of online gambling as it stands in its present state.

I’m still here in Las Vegas – enjoying some profitable sports bets plus a few horses too! I’ve been away too long to know the horses, but I’m happy to see that the same handicapping tricks I used to teach STILL WORK!!!!

I stumbled upon a unique person… here’s a handicapper that really believes in customer service. He offers the usual: free picks, discounted trials etc… so I took him up on his offer and bought a trial period from him covering the NBA and CBB. I immediately received today’s picks (they look hot)… but he said he’d like to welcome me to the family with not only two additional days of picks, but two days of free picks from two of his competitors (friendly competitors).

That’s the way to take care of your customers. I’ll try to work out a special deal for you – so hold on, and I’ll get back to you with that… meanwhile, check out all the free info you can learn from him even if you don’t buy anything: http://www.docsports.com/index.html

I’ll let you know how his picks work out for me… stay tuned,

Buzz

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