Another approach to the Belmont Stakes:

Here, we’ll begin by considering:
distance, weight, Past Performances, and Beyers’

There’s only one horse in this field that’s ever run 1.5 miles, and that’s Guadalcanal where he was second by a nose, but it was against far inferior horses, and he got a dismal 74 Beyers.

There are only six horses that have ever carried this much (126) weight: Big Brown (#1), Macho Again (#3), Denis of Cork (#4), Tale of Ekati (#7), Anak Nakal (#8), and Icabad Crane (#10).

Of those six, Macho Again and Icabad Crane have never run more than 1 1/8th Mile. The other four have completed 1 1/4 miles.

Of the four remaining, the highest Beyer is 97 by Big Brown in the Kentucky Derby. The other three have turned in the following Beyers:
Macho Again = 88 in the Preakness
Tale of Ekati = 86 in the Kentucky Derby
Anak Nakal = 82 in the Kentucky Derby

We already have a clear winner: Big Brown, but we knew that before beginning this exercise. Now we’re trying to eliminate the horses to come up with solid exotic bets.

Class:
1) Big Brown (#1)
2) Tale of Ekati (#7)
3) Casino Drive (#5)
4) Denis of Cork (#4)

The rest are too far behind to include in this category.

Next, we must consider early speed:

There are only two in this race with early speed:
Big Brown and Da’ Tara (#6). Casino Drive showed a little early speed in his one and only race in this country, so he’s pretty much an unknown.

Closers:

Everybody else! Though some are better than the others. Denis of Cork is very interesting in this category. If you throw out his last two races, he’s a definite closer. He got a really bad start in his last race (the Kentucky Derby) but still came in 3rd while called “sluggish”. Before that, he didn’t even try in the Illinois Derby where he came in 5th and was called “steady, but no bid”. IMPORTANT: You have to go back therefore to his race before those two and you’ll find a win in a G3 race while called “Solid rally, going away”. AND, today’s jockey; RJ Albarado was on him (but NOT on him in his last two - another reason to throw them out?).

Tale of Ekati seems to hate competition. He’s done well in the past when he’s gotten a good break from the gate and was not in a crowd. But lately, he’s been shuffled back into the group, and never fired under those circumstances.

Anak Nakal (#8); you have to go clear back to November of last year to find a decent race by this one. He was in a G2 race, broke cleanly in 4th and closed to win it by more than 3 lengths. He received a nice Beyer of 95 for that effort and was called “all out”. But since then he’s changed jockeys 3 times, and today gets that winning combo back with JR Leparoux aboard.

Icabad Crane (#10) has had decent races in the past but mostly against lesser horses. He earned an 87 Beyer in the Preakness when he finished 3rd while called “steadied 5/16″. Perhaps we should throw that race out and only look at his other races (all earning good Beyers [in the 80’s]) wherein he seemed to have a lot of trouble. If he gets a clean run today, he could be in the money.

So, where does this leave us?

The winner is Big Brown (#1)
Behind him, we must include the Class, Weight, Distance, Previous Races, and Beyers:

Class: Big Brown (#1), Tale of Ekati (#7), and Casino Drive (#5)

Weight: The 3 above plus; Macho Again (#3) and Denis of Cork (#4)

Distance: Only Guadalcanal (#2) has run it before.

Previous Races: Here we include: Anak Nakal (#8) and Icabad Crane (#10)

Beyers: Here, we consider Da’ Tara because he has the highest Beyer of all these horses (including Big Brown); 102 when he finished 2nd in the Barbaro on Preakness day.

So, let’s work backwards from here:
We can throw out the only horse in the race without a mention above, and that’s Ready’s Echo (#9) third to Casino Drive’s win.

Let’s eliminate those that have not carried this much weight (so important at this distance): Guadalcanal (#2), and Casino Drive (#5) (but again, with only 2 races - he’s a big unknown).

And speaking of Distance, two of the contenders have not run more than 1 1/8 miles: Macho Again (finished 7th more than 12 lengths back from the winner), and Icabad Crane who won his race with a decent Beyer, but was 10 lbs lighter than today.

Beyers: Here’s what’s gotten the fans excited about Casino Drive. In his one race in this country, he scored a win with a Beyers of 92. That’s third to Da’ Tara’s 102 (see above) and Big Brown’s 98, 97, and 93 (Big Brown’s only other race was a 91).

Previous Races:

Big Brown - ’nuff said! You want more? Ok - 5 starts, 5 wins. Won more than 4 times the money of the second highest earner in this race (Tale of Ekati). Has beaten: Macho Again, Icabad Crane, Denis of Cork Tale of Ekati, Anak Nakal, and every horse he’s ever run against.

Guadalcanal - can’t get excited about his past since he’s never won a race in 5 starts.

Macho Again - 9 starts, 3 wins, 3 places - only so-so past. He’s lost to Big Brown and beaten Icabad Crane.

Denis of Cork - A good past, 5 starts, 3 wins, 1 show. He’s lost to Big Brown and beaten no one in this field.

Casino Drive - He’s 2 wins in 2 starts. But largely unknown. He’s beaten Ready’s Echo.

Da’ Tara - 7 starts, in the money 4 times. He’s lost to Macho Again, Big Brown and Anak Nakal. He too has beaten no one in today’s race.

Tale of Ekati - Also 7 starts and in the money 4 times, but 3 of those were wins and one place. He’s the second (to Big Brown) class horse in this race. He’s lost to Big Brown and Denis of Cork. He’s beaten none of today’s contenders.

Anak Nakal - 7 starts, 2 wins, 1 place. Not impressive. He’s lost to Big Brown, Denis of cork, and Da’ Tara. He’s not beaten any of the others.

Ready’s Echo - 4 starts, 1 win, 2 place, 1 show. Doesn’t belong here. He’s lost to Casino Drive. Beaten none of the others.

Icabad Crane - 5 starts, 3 wins, 2 shows. Pretty Good record. He’s lost to Big Brown and Macho Again (3rd in the Preakness). He’s not beaten any of the other horses in this race.

We must eliminate more than two or three horses however, so let’s see who gets the most mentions.
First:
Big Brown of course - far and away the best of the field.

Second: Tale of Ekati (Class, Earnings, Weight, Previous Races)

Third: Casino Drive (class, previous races, Beyers)

Fourth: Denis of Cork (class, weight, previous races [if you throw out the last two], and gets his winning Jockey is back)

Fifth: Icabad Crane (class and weight, previous races [if you throw out his last])

So, there you have it; on paper, it’s a 1, 7, 5, 4, 10 race!

Here’s the way I would bet them:

Win: Nope - the odds are too bad to bet a straight win ticket.

Place and Show: Never

Quinella: it it’s available, and if you must: 1/7, 1/5 ) twice because of low odds), 1/4, 1/10

Exacta: 1/7, 1/5 (twice), 1/4, 1/10

Trifecta: 1/7/4,5,10 ($3 for a $1 trifecta) 1/5/4,7,10 (twice) 1/4/5,7,10 1/10/4,5,7 4,5,7,10/1,4,5,7,10/1,4,5,7,10 ($60) Then for safety, I would add: 5/1/4,7,10 again.

Total = $78

Now, if you believe my earlier post, Guadalcanal (#2) is going to upset the whole apple cart by coming in 3rd. LOL