This has turned into a very difficult race for Big Brown. I still believe he’ll win it… but:

There’s no speed in the race and that makes for a very unpredictable and exciting stretch run.

If Big Brown wins this race, it’ll be wire-to-wire.

Here’s the race as I see it unfolding:

This is 1.5 miles with no over-run. They’ll start just past middle stretch which is also the finish line.

It’s a shortish run to the first turn, and I see Big Brown (#1) sharing the lead with Da’ Tara (#6), followed closely behind by Casino Drive (#5). Then it’s a half a length back to 3 horses running side by side; Macho Again (#3), Denis of Cork (#4), and Tale of Ekati (#7). Next by a length is Guadalcanal (#2), followed by the slower starters and outside posts; Anak Nakal (#8), Ready’s Echo (#9), and Icabad Crane (#10).

Following the wide turn, and entering the backstretch, I see Da’ Tara making his effort to steal this race and he pulls in front of Big Brown (Kent Desormeaux aboard Big Brown will allow this even though Big Brown will fight him for the lead). If Da’ Tara does not make his move here, look for a wire-to-wire win by Big Brown. Following those two, on the inside will be Macho Again with Casino Drive outside. Behind them, look for Denis of Cork, Tale of Ekati, and Guadalcanal in that order. The rest is still bunched up and waiting to make their moves.

At the end of the backstretch, going into the final turn, you’ll see Big Brown on the outside of Da’Tara and easily passing him. Casino Drive is now settled along the rail right behind Da’ Tara. Now the field is starting to separate with Denis of Cork on the inside and Macho Again outside of him. Then back a bit to Tale of Ekati with Anak Nakal to his inside. Another length back to Guadalcanal inside Icabad Crane, and the trailer is Ready’s Echo.

As they turn for home at the top of the stretch, the battle begins between Big Brown and Casino Drive as Da’ Tara is spent. Closing wildly on the outside is Guadalcanal. Next and bunched up for the final run is Da’ Tara on the inside with Macho Again, Anak Nakal, Icabad Crane and Tale of Ekati far outside.

Denis of Cork has faded by now and is running with Ready’s Echo.

At the finish, it’s:
Big Brown
Casino Drive
Guadalcanal
Macho Again
Anak Nakal
Da’ Tara
Tale of Ekati
Icabad Crane
Denis of Cork
Ready’s Echo

There you go, I’ve really put it out there for you…

Here’s how I would bet the race:

Win: Nope the odds are too bad to bet Win
Place and Show: Never
Quinella: if it’s available and if you must: 1 / 5
Exacta: 1 / 5
Trifecta: 1 / 5 / 2
Superfecta: (if it’s available) 1 / 5 / 2 / 3, 6, 7, 8, 10 ($5 for a $1 superfecta) 1 / 5 / 2 / ALL ($7)

Now for the real fun stuff:

Exacta: 5 / 1 ($2), 1 / 2 ($2), 5 / 2 ($2), 1 / ALL ($18)
Trifecta: 1 / 5 / ALL ($8 for a $1 trifecta), 1 / ALL / 5 ($8), 5 / 1 / ALL ($8), ALL / 1 / ALL ($72), ALL / ALL / 1 ($72)

There aren’t enough horses in the race to go much beyond this, but for the way-out exotics… you can go crazy and mix ‘em up in every imaginable combination.

Good Luck, and Good Racing!