Kentucky Derby as Buzz B Berkeley sees it…
April 30, 2012 6:05 pm Horseracing Handicapping, My POVBut, start I must, so here goes:
“Back in the day” – it used to be so much less complicated to pick a winning horse. Not easier, just less complicated. I used a tiny “computer” from Radio shack. I wrote a program in “Basic” that was a very efficient numbers cruncher. That’s all we had to go on… numbers. We had the (limited) Past Performances and the Daily Racing Form – Period.
Today, we have videos of EVERY prep race and even workouts – software programs that were unimaginable 30 years ago. Details of every 3 yr old is available online as is the Lifetime performances of each. Now, I can sit home… watch races from around the world, listen to experts talk about the horses and the races, and I can even bet from home. And then, get real time coverage of the races.
But this year is unique because there has been no clear frontrunner… no favorite. Sure, we’ve had a full field of 20 horses in the Kentucky Derby for many years now, and the days of a Secretariat scaring off contenders seem to be a thing of the past, but still we’ve had favorites to concentrate on our handicapping efforts on.
Currently, the favorite is Bodemeister. That’s a sad thing for me but for purely selfish reasons. I LOVE Oaklawn. It’s by far my favorite track. And that’s where Bodemeister blew up the competition and ran away with the Arkansas Derby. His 9 length win rocketed him to stardom. I prefer going into the Kentucky Derby secretly betting on the AD winner… there’s no secret this year… the cat is out of the bag.
Bodemeister should go into the Kentucky Derby as the clear favorite this year. I say SHOULD because there’s a big IF involved:
This Wednesday, the winner of the Kentucky Derby may be picked “out of a hat”. That’s when the post positions will be chosen. With such a talented field this year, it could very well come down to PP as the most important factor as to who is the winner at the finish line.
Aside from that HUGE factor… let’s look at the horses:
There are many horses in this year’s race that should win based upon their prep races. So what’s a person to do?
Bodemeister: Clearly the fastest horse in the field. He proved that with a big Beyer (108) in the Arkansas Derby. I thought the first timing of :23 + was a bit slow, but he stepped it up and crunched the clock. Triple digit Beyers was not new to him; he did it 3 times in a row! BTW: only 3 other horses in the race got a 3 digit beyer (and they did it only once): “Creative Cause”, “El Padrino”, and my favorite name in the Race: “Daddy Nose Best” (it’s a clever name for a race horse, and it cracks me up). Every KD winner in the last 20 years (at least) finished with a 3 digit Beyer. However it should be noted that 5 of those past winners came into the race with no 3-digit beyers to their credit (including all of the KD winners in the last 3 years).
This horse brings up another factor that we didn’t deal with 30 years ago. Bode has only 4 career starts. That would not have gotten him any attention back then, but now, it’s not so uncommon nor a reason to dismiss a horse. The plot thickens!
Did you know that you have to go back well over a hundred years to find a KD winner that never raced as a 2 yr old? (I think it was 1892). Well, that’s the knock on Bode! Yep – he never raced at all as a 2 yr old.
Gemologist: He’s UNbeaten! Wow, that’s impressive in this year’s crop of 3yr olds. However, Gemologist has defeated a not-so-great group of mostly losing horses.
Hansen: Looking back at his record, it’s difficult to see why he got so much press as a leading contender for the Roses. It had to have come from last year’s Juvenile run here at Churchill Downs where no fewer than 9 of these contenders raced, and “Hansen” beat them all. With that exception, he’s a winner of minor races and beaten loser on occasion. I certainly don’t expect a rerun of the Juvenile. ‘nuf said.
Union Rags: here’s another horse with a lot of early press and promise. He couldn’t catch even “Hansen” in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile (more on that later). He was a favorite to win the Florida Derby but disappointed his believers. He did make up some ground on the eventual winner “Take Charge Indy”.
Daddy Long Legs: An unknown and unproven shipper, this horse sneaks in from Dubai with questionable credentials and unknown performances abroad. Another knock: he’s best on grass.
Dullahan: My pick to win earlier this month, this horse NEEDS a good post position to remain my pick. He cannot start from outside in a 20 horse field. Further, his best performances were on a Polytrack or grass, and that may not translate well when he hits the dirt. He needs more than a good post position; he also needs a fast pace which would enable him to close as is his want. If he pulls this off, he’ll have the target horse “Trinniberg” to thank for a really quick pace.
Take Charge Indy: He will not get the perfect race here that he got in Florida. There, he broke cleanly, got inside, kept the pace slow and had enough to outlast the rest including “Union Rags”. But here, with a dirt track, a 20 horse field and a quicker pace, he looks like an also finished to me. Not to say he won’t be a part of the exotics, but not the winner.
I’ll Have Another: Here’s a case of a good horse, with a good win, and a record including a win over another Kentucky Derby entrant… that simply is not fast enough to win this race.
Creative Cause: Here’s the horse that “I’ll Have Another” nosed out for the win at Santa Anita. That’s not much to hang your hat on. Could win, and that’s cool, ’cause he’s such a great looking horse! And don’t forget, he beat “Bodemeister”!!!
I repeat… What’s a guy to do?
Tags: buzz b berkeley, futures, horse racing, horseracing, Kentucky Derby, Run for the Roses, triple crown
May 1st, 2012 at 1:58 am
Fantastic items from you, man. I’ve bear in mind your stuff previous to and you’re simply extremely excellent. I actually like what you have obtained right here, certainly like what you are stating and the way in which in which you are saying it. You’re making it entertaining and you still care for to stay it sensible. I can not wait to learn much more from you. This is really a wonderful site.
May 1st, 2012 at 2:32 am
I used to be suggested this blog by means of my cousin. I’m not sure whether this post is written through him as nobody else know such targeted approximately my problem. You are wonderful! Thank you!
May 1st, 2012 at 3:09 am
I believe that is among the such a lot significant information for me. And i’m satisfied reading your article. But wanna commentary on some normal issues, The website style is perfect, the articles is really excellent : D. Excellent process, cheers
May 1st, 2012 at 6:36 am
You realize therefore considerably with regards to this subject, made me in my view consider it from a lot of varied angles. Its like men and women don’t seem to be fascinated until it’s something to accomplish with Lady gaga! Your own stuffs outstanding. At all times maintain it up!
May 1st, 2012 at 6:38 am
I feel that is among the such a lot significant info for me. And i am glad studying your article. But should statement on some common things, The web site taste is wonderful, the articles is actually excellent : D. Good task, cheers
May 1st, 2012 at 9:07 am
Thank you for the good writeup. It in reality was once a entertainment account it. Glance complex to more introduced agreeable from you! However, how can we communicate?
May 1st, 2012 at 9:16 am
Hello very cool web site!! Guy .. Beautiful .. Wonderful .. I will bookmark your blog and take the feeds also?I’m glad to search out so many helpful info right here in the submit, we need work out extra techniques on this regard, thanks for sharing. . . . . .
May 1st, 2012 at 10:44 am
I was recommended this blog by way of my cousin. I am now not sure whether this put up is written via him as nobody else recognize such special approximately my difficulty. You’re incredible! Thanks!
May 1st, 2012 at 11:30 am
I’ve learn a few excellent stuff here. Definitely value bookmarking for revisiting. I wonder how so much effort you set to make this kind of magnificent informative web site.
May 1st, 2012 at 11:52 am
naturally like your web-site however you have to test the spelling on quite a few of your posts. Many of them are rife with spelling issues and I in finding it very bothersome to tell the truth on the other hand I will surely come again again.
May 1st, 2012 at 1:09 pm
Thank you, I have just been searching for information about this subject for a long time and yours is the greatest I’ve discovered so far. However, what concerning the conclusion? Are you positive concerning the source?|What i don’t realize is in truth how you’re now not really much more smartly-appreciated than you may be right now. You’re so intelligent.
May 1st, 2012 at 2:14 pm
Nice weblog right here! Also your site lots up fast! What web host are you the usage of? Can I get your associate hyperlink on your host? I wish my site loaded up as quickly as yours lol
May 1st, 2012 at 8:35 pm
Just desire to say your article is as astonishing. The clarity for your post is just nice and i can suppose you are an expert in this subject. Fine together with your permission let me to snatch your feed to keep updated with coming near near post. Thanks 1,000,000 and please carry on the enjoyable work.
May 2nd, 2012 at 4:43 am
My brother recommended I might like this web site. He was once totally right. This submit actually made my day. You cann’t consider simply how so much time I had spent for this info! Thank you!
May 2nd, 2012 at 4:54 am
I will immediately grasp your rss feed as I can not find your email subscription link or newsletter service. Do you’ve any? Kindly let me know in order that I could subscribe. Thanks.
May 2nd, 2012 at 1:23 pm
You already know thus considerably in relation to this matter, produced me in my opinion believe it from a lot of varied angles. Its like men and women are not interested except it’s something to do with Lady gaga! Your personal stuffs great. At all times maintain it up!
May 2nd, 2012 at 1:40 pm
Very nice post. I simply stumbled upon your blog and wished to say that I’ve really loved browsing your weblog posts. In any case I’ll be subscribing for your rss feed and I am hoping you write once more very soon!
May 2nd, 2012 at 8:22 pm
Your site is amazingly useful! We here at our community renovation group really admire the hard effort you have spent on this post. In fact, we have also been creating a website covering LED diodes. Your site’s theme is a great help for our new website. Please continue posting this good work! Looking forward to seeing more info from your amazing site! I just added your website to my own favorites list.
May 2nd, 2012 at 9:41 pm
Heya i am for the first time here. I came across this board and I to find It really helpful & it helped me out a lot. I hope to offer one thing back and aid others such as you aided me.
May 2nd, 2012 at 10:41 pm
I’ve read some good stuff here. Definitely worth bookmarking for revisiting. I surprise how so much attempt you put to create this kind of wonderful informative site.
May 3rd, 2012 at 12:59 pm
Its such as you learn my mind! You seem to grasp so much about this, like you wrote the guide in it or something. I believe that you could do with some p.c. to power the message home a bit, but instead of that, this is great blog. A great read. I’ll definitely be back.
May 4th, 2012 at 6:37 am
Just desire to say your article is as amazing. The clarity for your put up is simply nice and that i can think you are knowledgeable on this subject. Fine together with your permission allow me to seize your feed to keep up to date with coming near near post. Thanks 1,000,000 and please continue the enjoyable work.
May 4th, 2012 at 11:30 am
Excellent items from you, man. I’ve have in mind your stuff previous to and you’re just too magnificent. I actually like what you’ve got right here, certainly like what you’re saying and the way in which in which you are saying it. You make it enjoyable and you still care for to keep it sensible. I can not wait to learn much more from you. This is actually a terrific web site.
May 4th, 2012 at 12:16 pm
Great goods from you, man. I have keep in mind your stuff prior to and you’re just extremely fantastic. I really like what you’ve got right here, really like what you’re stating and the way by which you say it. You are making it entertaining and you continue to take care of to keep it sensible. I cant wait to read much more from you. That is actually a tremendous site.
May 5th, 2012 at 12:34 pm
Wow, fantastic weblog format! How long have you been blogging for? you make blogging glance easy. The overall glance of your website is great, as well as the content!
May 6th, 2012 at 2:41 pm
Excellent submit, very informative. I’m wondering why the other experts of this sector don’t understand this. You must proceed your writing. I’m sure, you’ve a great readers’ base already!|What’s Going down i am new to this, I stumbled upon this I’ve found It absolutely helpful and it has helped me out loads. I’m hoping to give a contribution & aid other users like its aided me. Great job.
May 6th, 2012 at 9:47 pm
You can certainly see your expertise within the paintings you write. The world hopes for even more passionate writers like you who aren’t afraid to mention how they believe. Always go after your heart.
May 6th, 2012 at 10:42 pm
I’ve been exploring for a little for any high quality articles or blog posts in this kind of space . Exploring in Yahoo I finally stumbled upon this site. Reading this information So i’m glad to express that I’ve an incredibly good uncanny feeling I discovered exactly what I needed. I so much unquestionably will make sure to don?t put out of your mind this web site and provides it a look on a continuing basis.
May 7th, 2012 at 12:20 am
We’re a bunch of volunteers and starting a new scheme in our community. Your web site offered us with useful info to paintings on. You’ve performed a formidable task and our entire group can be thankful to you.
May 7th, 2012 at 6:06 pm
From the various examples seen online to style ordered lists, the common method seems to be to style the numbers via the OL tag, then established additional styling on the list LI elements to override the OL styling.
May 9th, 2012 at 3:12 pm
Thanks so much pertaining to giving us an update on this matter on your web page. Please understand that if a completely new post becomes available or when any changes occur to the current submission, I would be thinking about reading more and finding out how to make good usage of those tactics you talk about. Thanks for your time and consideration of others by making this website available.
May 16th, 2012 at 4:17 pm
Great work! That is the kind of info that are supposed to be shared around the net. Shame on Google for now not positioning this post higher! Come on over and discuss with my site . Thanks =)
May 16th, 2012 at 4:49 pm
The next time I learn a weblog, I hope that it doesnt disappoint me as much as this one. I imply, I know it was my option to learn, but I really thought youd have something attention-grabbing to say. All I hear is a bunch of whining about one thing that you would repair if you happen to werent too busy searching for attention.
May 19th, 2012 at 4:11 am
Excellent beat ! I would like to apprentice while you amend your website, how
can i subscribe for a blog website? The account helped me a acceptable deal.
I had been tiny bit acquainted of this your broadcast
provided bright clear concept
May 25th, 2012 at 2:16 pm
I think the admin of this site is really working hard for his web
page, as here every information is quality based information.
May 27th, 2012 at 10:32 am
I think one of your commercials caused my web browser to resize, you may well want to put that on your blacklist.
May 28th, 2012 at 2:53 pm
Machines like this should be distributed world-wide. People should be more conscious about their health and should have a very routine yearly check-up. After losing a loved a single from cancer (breast cancer), hearing news about early detecting device for some other forms of cancer is enlightening.
May 29th, 2012 at 9:07 pm
Motor biker motorcyle drivers typically utilize the words mini motorcycle donning discussing humble motorcycles that will been able together with fuel. For this reason, workers broke terrain marketing along with advertising these kind of focus on exercise bikes and moreover promoted a bunch of packages within order for you to young kids who ended up using the most recent not necessarily away from highway motorcycle capable of very obtain. A lttle bit paths occasionally book fertility cycles for laying out cash clients elizabeth. h. grown-ups which generally wanted to be subjected to great his or her tiny bicycle as well as youths which decide to riders furthermore get thought at some point dealing with become sports activity motorcycle competitors. small bicycle
May 30th, 2012 at 5:32 am
Your place is valueble for me. Thanks!…
May 30th, 2012 at 9:35 am
Hey all. I desired to inquire something… may be the after a wordpress website once we are intending to end up being transferring throughout to be able to WP. Moreover did anyone choose this layout by yourself? Thank you.