Kentucky Derby Day…May 5, 2012 1:14 am Horseracing Handicapping, My POV
First – Congratulations to the first female jockey to win the Kentucky Oaks; Rosie Napravnik. Of course, the horse deserves some of the credit. So Congratulations to “Believe You Can”. The owners, trainers and handlers all Believed!
So, now comes the biggie: the Kentucky Derby. This, the 138th running is impossible to figure. I’ve been sure of my picks in the past (right or wrong), but this year – it’s the most open field as far as possible winners go that I can remember.
My favorite since the Arkansas Derby (as you know, Oaklawn is my favorite track), Bodemeister is likely to become everyone’s favorite come post time. I’d like to get a better price on him, but now you all know he’s the fastest of the field. He has as many triple digit Beyers as does the rest of the field – combined! His 3 are better than their three – na na na na… na na! LOL
He’s got early speed, he’s got a great post position, he’s coming into the race fit… what’s to not like?
… the other horses – that’s what to not like. There are just too many of them that have legitimate chances of taking the Roses this year.
Let’s take a final look:
Union Rags – likely to be the second favorite in the betting and rightly so. This horse may take advantage of fast splits and catch ‘em all!
Dullahan – He’d be a co-favorite also except that his ability on dirt is suspect. He too will be charging late.
Creative Cause – If he goes off at 15-1 or better – he’ll be the best “longshot” in years. Can Do!
Daddy Nose Best – Dangerous! He’s sneaky… comes from behind, however this is definitely a step-up in class and although he’s got the winningest PP (10) I don’t think he’ll get there in time… close though.
Alpha – Very capable closer. Watch for a great run up the stretch.
Gemologist – He’s never lost! And 2 of his wins were here at Churchill Downs. The locals will be all over him – a short price will eliminate him for me.
El Padrino – Here’s a real sleeper. I don’t know what to make of this horse. He’s faster than many in the race (98) and has beaten some in this group. We’ll get a great price on this horse… maybe 25-1 or more!
Sabrecat – Scary! I can’t wait to see what this horse does. He’s a real secret. Steve Asmussen has done “just enough” to qualify him for this race without getting any attention at all. He’s really done a masterful job of keeping him under wraps and bringing him to peak at the right time. Can’t overlook the possibility of an upset!
But – having said that, I’m sticking with my earlier predictions:
… the rest… yes the rest – ALL 17 of ‘em!
Fasten your seat belts my friends – we’re in for a helluva ride!
Tags: buzz b berkeley, futures, horse racing, horseracing, Kentucky Derby, Run for the Roses, triple crown