Kentucky Derby Update…April 14, 2012 4:44 pm Horseracing Handicapping, My POV
History, but not historic… at least not obviously historic.
We’ve witnessed greatness fall to mediocrity… we’ve watched mediocrity gain greatness… We’re seeing the Kentucky Derby field more clearly now that there are only 3 weeks to wait for it.
And that 3 weeks is critical. Is it too short a time to come back from a big race and run a mile and a quarter? Can an easy win in the Arkansas Derby mean that Bodemeister ran too fast and hurt his chances to win the Kentucky Derby – OR – did it mean that he had no problem with the field today, no problem with the track today… and depending upon how he comes out of this race… will he be a favorite on the 1st day of May?
The other prep race was only an hour earlier, so the same question arise for the winner of the Blue Grass Stakes. Will Dullahan come out of it ready to go on Derby day? He had a much, much tougher battle with the favorite Hansen and I believe that they both eliminated themselves from contention in the Kentucky Derby.
So, who does that leave? Ok, here are the top five contenders as I see it today. Keep in mind, this can and will change as we get closer to the Derby.
In no particular order:
I’ll Have Another
My pick today? Maybe the Santa Anita Derby will produce the winner this year. That’s only happened 8 times in the past (with one Triple Crown Winner: Affirmed did it in 1978). Despite the dismal LA – Louisville past performances… I’m currently picking “I’ll Have Another” to win the Derby.
Take that to the bank… or better still: stay tuned!
Tags: kentucky derby