Well, that’s not important; what is important is the Run For The Roses. It’s tomorrow, and usually I’ve posted my pick to win nearly a week before the race. Not this year. This year, there’s no clear winner (like “Big Brown” was last year), and along with the absence of a favorite, comes an absence of interest. This could be the most boring of all Kentucky Derby races, or maybe the lack of a favorite will make for an exciting race full of surprises.

Anyway, I feel it’s my “duty” to share my thoughts on the event tomorrow.

With the clear pick (Quality Road) gone, and out of the race, it’s a clear…. mess!

What’s left is a distinction between the haves and the have-nots. There’s a group of four who are clearly far above the rest in talent. The other 16 are there to fill the gates.

Let’s take a closer look at the “Fab Four”:

I Want Revenge (3-1)

Starting comfortably in the center of the track at PP 13, this closer will not be looking at clear running ahead as they hit the first turn. He’ll be placed somewhere around 5th and trying to save ground for his late kick. His trainer, the ever-hated Jeff Mullins and rider Joe Talamo team up again to bring this impressive speedster home. When was the last time you saw a Beyer of 113 (two back in the “Gotham”)? Unheard of speed! His last race resulted in a stunning win in the G1 “Wood Memorial” (Beyer 103). This one MUST figure in your exotic tickets. Only a very bad trip will keep him from being in the photo. Here’s a very interesting fact; he’s never lost since switching from a synthetic track to a dirt track.

Pioneerof the Nile (4-1)

It was at Santa Anita, on a synthetic track that this one beat “I Want Revenge” in February. What will dirt do to him? He’s never raced on the dirt before. However, his workouts this week at Churchill Downs have been great! He might take to dirt as has his nemesis. This question aside, he is undefeated this year. His PP is 16 (which is last in the main gate) and waaaay outside. He too is a closer, but his best Beyer is 96. He couldn’t be in a much worse position except, that he’ll have no one on his immediate right because that’s where they place the auxiliary gate.

Friesan Fire (6-1)

Well placed in PP 6, this one shows a little early speed, but is still a closer. Look for him to be in the hunt at the first turn and well inside. Also unbeaten this year, he’s been laid off since March 14 when he won the coveted “Louisiana Derby at Oaklawn in Hot Springs, AR with a great Beyer of 104 (adjusted for the slop, and his lifetime best). That race was run in the slop, and the weather in Louisville has been rain, rain and more rain this week, and more to come tomorrow.  Maybe this too will be a sloppy track – this one hopes so! His latest workout at Churchill Downs was on April 7th when he sizzled :57 4/5 for 5 furlongs (that was the fastest time that day over 26 runners). His trainer; Larry Jones has announced his retirement following the Breeders Cup this year. He was truly affected (devastated) by his loss last year in the Kentucky Derby of “Eight Belles”, the filly that broke down after her heart-breaking second-place finish to the huge favorite; “Big Brown”.

Dunkirk (4-1)

I’ve included this one with a few question marks; only three lifetime starts (remember, “Big Brown” won this race after only four lifetime starts), PP 15 which is arguably the worst position in the gates. No early speed, closes like the others in this group. His wins were clearly against inferior (to this group) horses, but he’s here based upon his latest race; the Florida Derby where he came in second to the scratched favorite (by far) “Quality Road”. Plus, he showed a Beyer of 108 which is easily the second best in this field. Add to that his price tag of $3.7 Million and you have a horse that the connections truly believe in. The trainer; Todd Pletcher is no stranger to the KD and he’s hired ES Prado to ride him again (he was aboard when Dunkirk broke his maiden in Florida, 3 races ago on his first try).

So, with all that said, there is of course a strong possibility of an upset. But by whom? Damn near anyone else!!

If you’re a Beyer believer, you could throw in the fourth highest speed rating in the race: General Quarters (20-1) with a Beyer of 102. He won his last outing the G1 “Blue Grass” with a Beyer of 95.

But right behind him are two more with Beyers of 101; West Side Bernie (30-1), and Papa Clem (20-1).

“West Side Bernie” (20-1) was a respectable 2nd to “I Want Revenge” in the G1 “Wood Memorial” where he set his lifetime high Beyer of 101.

Papa Clem (20-1) who also beat “I Want Revenge” in February. Further, this one has the early speed of the race, look for him to take the early lead. If he has it all to himself (but Friesan Fire has some speed too) he could slow it down, save his strength for the duel that is sure to happen in the home stretch – and hold on for the win. Could happen! However, “Mine That Bird” (50-1) and “Join In The Dance” (50-1) both have early speed and will probably cause an upfront battle (that really plays into the hands of the closers).

The unknown “Regal Ransom” (30-1) showed early speed also, but that was back in ’08 before he shipped overseas. His stablemate “Desert Party” (15-1) seems to trade win and place. This one won in his last out (“Regal Ransom” was second), but his two races prior to that were won by “Regal Ransom” and this one was second.

“Hold Me Back” (15-1) finished a strong second to “General Quarters” in the “Blue Grass” last month, but prior to that had three wins in a row. He showed a good Beyer of 97.

Winner of five of his last six races, “Musket Man” (20-1)  was the runaway winner in the G2 Illinois Derby has a Beyer in that race of 98.

“Chocolate Candy” (20-1) finished in top three in 7 of his 9 lifetime starts. Beyer of 94. He came in second to “Pioneerof The Nile”.

Also with a Beyer of 94, “Advice” won two weeks ago in the G2 “Lexington”. He’s never been tested against horses like the ones he’ll see tomorrow. His only G1 race was a disaster, he finished 9th of 11. Ugh!

“Mr. Hot Stuff” (30-1) (Beyer; 96) ran a G1 race in early April and finished a nice third (beaten by “Pioneerof The Nile” and “Chocolate Candy”).

The rest of the field:

“Atomic Rain”(50-1) finished fourth in last race; G1 Wood Memorial (beaten by “I Want Revenge” and “West Side Bernie”) has a Beyer of 95.

“Summer Bird” (50-1) finished third in his last; a G2 Arkansas Derby (beaten by Papa Clem) had a Beyer of 99.

“Nowhere To Hide” (50-1) was fourth in the G2 Illinois Derby which was won by “Musket Man”. He showed a Beyer of 80. His lifetime Beyer is 90. His granddaddy is “Seattle Slew”.

“Flying Private” (50-1) has a fifth-place finish in the G2 Arkansas Derby with a Beyer of 91. His lifetime highest Beyer is 94 in the G2 “Lane’s End” where he finished 2nd to “Hold Me Back”.

Now, with all that said, if I crunch a few numbers to come up with the winner…

I quickly see a problem; the two horses that have been racing in Saudi Arabia have been awarded huge purses that throw off the numbers. So, the pure math angle doesn’t look like it will work in this case, but here’s how it crunched out:

1. Regal Ransom

2. Pioneerof The Nile

3. Desert Party

4. I Want Revenge

5. Musket Man

When I ran the numbers based upon ONLY this year’s records:

1. Regal Ransom

2. Papa Clem

3. Friesan Fire

4.  Desert Party

5. Musket Man

So, my pick for this year’s Kentucky Derby????? =

I’d pick Friesan Fire without hesitation if it weren’t for the fact that he hasn’t raced since March 14, and you have to ask yourself why? Although, it could just be Jones’ plan.

So, I’m left with Pioneerof The Nile as my pick to upset (?) I Want Revenge. I would not be surprised at all if those finished One, Two, Three!

See ya at Bodog,

Good Luck!

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